Day Two - What is Driving Today's Market?

What is driving today’s market?
The short answer is nothing really. It’s like an empty car in neutral rolling down a hill. Yes it will roll, and it will go until it either runs off the road or hits something big enough to stop it. Why? How? Gravity. No not a tractor beam (Borrowed Stimulus Money) sent from the mother ship (Gov’t) pulling it downhill, its gravity it has always been here.
Compare that visual to today’s burgeoning recovery (the car) which is starting to roll in many areas of the country the movement can be attributed to a few things.
1. The natural cycle (The gravity) for this time of year, the spring and summer naturally bring more activity, a good amount of stored up demand. (Which is in my opinion mostly due to the unfavorable, inaccurate, over generalized media coverage of the last year.)
2. Attractive first time home buyer incentives i.e. $8,000 tax credit, record levels of inventory, lower prices and increased affordability. The big if is the supposed increasing availability of mortgage financing available. (The road with a big 90 degree turn coming up)
While these are all nice, and depending on which party’s media machine you listen to, there are signs of optimism in the economy and overall direction of the housing market. There are signs of a bottoming out of the housing fall, an increased level of activity and consumer confidence in housing all over the place.
But for a true long term recovery there are a few items missing and a few time bombs (The Wall) lurking in the near future that could derail any recovery unless they are addressed; one of the most immediate being the $8,000 first time buyer tax incentive sunset of December 2009, not that this can continue indefinitely however. At some point virtually every person with the ability to purchase a home as a first time buyer is going to do so. Sure there will always be new people entering the market, but the level to drive a recovery will, has, level off and the effect will be less noticeable, they cannot drive the market for ever. Also the job market and banks starting to lend again are big deals, but those are obvious and yesterday’s news.
So what do I think is needed next? (Who can jump in our empty rolling car and steer us around that corner and away from that wall?) I think a new incentive should be introduced to spur the missing link in the housing recovery, the real estate investor. Not the jacked-up-on-HGTV flipping-manic-fly-by-night-know-it-all-jack-of-all-trades-price-war-bidding over exuberant type of the early to mid 00’s. But the professionals, and the rational small time investor looking to take advantage of an opportunity, and to make sound quality purchases of an asset that can never be worthless.* (As I have stated many times before, if you find a piece of property that is truly worth $0, tell me and I will buy it! Chernobyl excluded).
Tomorrow Day 3…The Investor the Missing Link

Today's Market - Tomorrow's Market Part 1

I doubt there is anyone out there than can dispute that the home buying and selling process, whether new or existing, is a vital and important aspect of any economy. The velocity of money which accompanies each transaction is enormous. With so many different beneficiaries from builders, suppliers, real estate agents, insurance agents and companies, bankers, investors, lenders, inspectors, repairmen, roofers, local, state, federal tax coffers, attorneys,, ….the list can go on for a long time I think you get the point. Each property sale creates enormous income for many, people, who in turn take that money and spend it elsewhere, who take that and spend it, who take that….
I think it is time we take a step back and look at the reality of today’s market, to see what is really going on, and where it’s going tomorrow. What are the few key issues that are driving today’s market? Also what are the few missing pieces that are needed to bring the market back to a true recovery, or a true long term positive, sustainable healthy level?

That is what I am going to explore the next few days, and present my plan and my ideas. I would like your ideas too, so chime in as you please and I will use your input in the plan, good or bad. I will then present the final plan anyone that will listen, to see if anything happens....at worst we can look back and say we tried!

Tomorrow…What is driving today’s market?